We will be taking some time off for the holiday festivities including a trip to the big easy. We will return on July 12th. In the mean time we're expecting fireworks in the market as 995 remains our target on the S&P.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Pump the breaks, looks like the market gave us the fake out. From a technical perspective signs were pointing to a bounce, however today’s price action put things back in check. Suddenly that 995 S&P Target doesn’t seem so far away. A few weeks back we talked about getting short at 1127; our target is the $995. We also talked about the importance of hedging. When the market is up, you must think about downside risk, and when the market is down, you must think about upside risk.
Monday, June 28, 2010
For what appears to be a choppy chart at the end of the day, intraday trading has been quite technical. Took profits on GLD this morning however, we still thing it will be moving higher. Once again we will pick up calls near the lows of the trend line. The Put/Call ratio is showing a move to the upside is near. The move down has begun to slow and round out. We are expecting to close the week positive across the top line figures.
Sunday, June 27, 2010
We saw a stream of selling this past week; however volume did not jump up by that much. The chart is semi-broken and choppy looking. We will continue to go with what is working, buying pullbacks in strong up trending names like SNDK, NFLX, and GLD, hedging with the QQQQs, SPY, or DIA.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Heavy selling and a Trin close above 2.0 on both the NYSE and NASDAQ. If we cannot close higher tomorrow we are in for new lows on the year, but as always there are two sides to every trade…
Bulls see: Pullback before making new highs (look at Feb 25, same setup).
Bears see: Head and Shoulders, looking to make new lows on the year.
Tomorrow is the monthly Fed meeting announcement. We are expecting them to leave rates unchanged until the November elections.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Thursday, June 17, 2010
The VIX (Volatility Index) has pulled back which brings up the idea that there could be some sustainability to this rally. We are expecting a bullish OPEX Friday and a selloff to the 20MA next week. This will provide a great opportunity to put on new positions, both long and short.
Took profits on some GLD, looking to grab more if it dips to $120.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Today we saw a close above the 20 Period Moving Average across the top line figures. This is something we have not seen since early May. We are bullish for the time being, however do see shorts setting up in the near future. Looking deeper into the leading industry groups we see things like Paper and Tires, rather than Banks and Biotech’s, thus are labeling this as a dead cat bounce until we break $1148 on the S&P.
Monday, June 14, 2010
The S&P failed to close above its 20EMA which is the trend changing level we have been talking about. We touched the $1101.75 gap fill from 6/3 to the tick and it ended up being the high for the day. A break above the high of today and we are bullish, break below and we are bearish. A big move is on the way.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…
A close above the 20-EMA would be extremely pivotal. We remain delta neutral until this happens and still have our downside target on the S&P of $1005. Only if we break above $122 will we see this target not being reached.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
We’re not out of the woods just yet. It’s not that we’re permabears here at TJMacTrading, simply remaining objective. We traded average volume on today’s advance, with the VIX down just slightly. The put/call ratio remains over 1.0, and has for some time, never breaking the .90 mark as of late. We have two scenarios from this level that will pan out next week.
Scenario 1: Shot covering rally to retest S&P $1105.
Scenario 2: We rollover from these levels and make new yearly lows at $1005.
100 points apart, only the markets will tell us, whichever scenario occurs, we will be participants.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
New lows on the year here we come. S&P 1005 is our target since the bulls have failed to hold this market up. With futures rollover tomorrow intraday trading may continue to be choppy. Nonetheless we did see a great long entry last night right up to our 1074 short on the /ES. We haven’t added any new swing trade positions at this time.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
A short hiatus, but we're back. Looking at a chart of the SPY, we produced a nice little double bottom with stronger volume. To keep it short and sweet, we are looking for a bounce up to 1075 on the S&P500 and then a decline down to our original target $1005.
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Ask any successful trader and they will tell you that the best book out there relating to trading is Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre. This is the story of famed trader Jesse Livermore, discuised in the book as Edwin Lefevre. This incredible story is a very easy read and should be read over and over again.
Labels: Reading List
Friday, June 4, 2010
Thursday, June 3, 2010
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Not a pretty NASDAQ chart for bulls. With daily swing targets below us, an inverted hammer on the QQQQ’s and continuing fears of the Oil Spill, Greece and Spain, and not to mention our own US debt we could see a massive decline this week breaking lows. A break outside of this inverted hammer on the QQQQ’s should give us some short term direction.
New shorts setting up for tomorrow: AMED, M, SLW, UNP
New shorts setting up for tomorrow: AMED, M, SLW, UNP