Sunday, August 29, 2010

Wk35: Mkt Forecast

Well spaced news for the upcoming week. We are anticipating a rally this week at least in to the 1082s on the /ES. If we move up and break 1093 then we will look to buy the first major pullback. The top traders and hedge fund managers should be coming back from holiday after Labor Day and the market action should really start to pick up again.

Monday, August 23, 2010

Daily Reflection: 08.23

Well that rally was short lived. We were immediately sold into on the open at the daily short level of 1080 on the S&P. The target on this trade is 1053 and there’s no reason we can’t go there tomorrow on the Existing Home Sales report. Regardless, now is a great time to be hedged.

If you are flat, then a 70/30 bearish/bullish weight to your positions would set you up nicely to take advantage of a violent down more, or steady up move. The key here is to balance the portfolio in a way that you can sleep at night (if you are holding overnight positions) and allow you to think clearly throughout the trading day. If you are sweating over a position, chances are you are positioned to large.

Wk34: Mkt Forecast

Lots of news this week beginning on Tuesday with Existing Home sales and ending with GDP will make for a nice week of trading. During times of rotation as we saw over the past two weeks the markets can be extremely whipsaw like and almost untradeable at times. It is perfectly okay to be on the sidelines during these times, patiently waiting for the next trade. Refer to our post on trading like a cheetah. We're Looking for a rally this week. If it is sold into, look for a big move lower. If we break prior swing highs, then the rally will continue.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Gone for the weekend

Enjoy these videos for the time being...

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Daily Reflection: 08.11

Look out below! We have now clearly broken trend line support, where land nobody knows. Well, not quite. An inverted head and shoulders could potentially be setting up with the left shoulder trading in June, Head in July, and right shoulder forming in August. Regardless, the VIX has jumped back into the mid 20s and the sense of fear and uncertainty is back in the markets (if it ever left to begin with).

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Daily Reflection: 08.10

This week is going to get ugly so hang on. If you don’t already have it, grab yourself some downside protection expecting for the worse. As of late good news has lead to down moves in the market and bad news to up moves. Today’s Fed announcement was far from good news. The market is a forward looking instrument.

Monday, August 9, 2010

Daily Reflection: 08.09

The FOMC Meeting Announcement tomorrow is likely to cause a whipsaw around 1:15 CST and the time leading up to it. No trading will take place tomorrow from 1:00 PM to 1:30 PM, at least on our end. No sense in getting chopped up or impulse trading any sort of news. It’s never worth it.

Friday, August 6, 2010

Daily Reflection: 08.06

A slow week to say the least. Today’s Jobless Claims # added a little volatility to the markets, but overall we continue with the sideways action. We bounced off trend line support today and this candle will be used for the bullish/bearish line in the sand, bullish above, bearish below.

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Daily Reflection: 08.05

This week we have been trading within the value area each day resulting in complete chop. Looking at a daily it’s clear that we are in a period of consolidation. The more we move sideways after a gap the more likely we are to break in the direction of the gap once the consolidation is over. Therefore, we are looking for a resume to the trend and move higher.

Tomorrow’s Employment Situation is the big news at 7:30 CST so be ready for some volatility.

The day’s value area is defined as 70% of where volume took place during that day. Below is a value chart. More on this can be found here.

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Daily Reflection: 08.04

Two consolidation days after Monday's move up. Expect a reaction tomorrow. Also, keep an eye on the VIX as it has been drifting lower.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Monday, August 2, 2010

Daily Reflection: 08.02

Given that we hit our 1122 target on the S&P. The next expected pullback level would be 1187, however since we traded back at a 50% level of 1085, we have another unfilled target at 1134. The longer term bullish line in the sand will be 1078, bullish above, bearish below.

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Wk31: Market Forecast

The S&P is at a great level to put on positions, both to the long and short side. It is not clear yet whether we have double topped, or if this is the stat of an uptrend. Both have developed, but neither has broken out to confirm its trend. In situations like this it’s best to start the week delta neutral and add/subtract positions as the week progresses.

Our unfilled targets on the S&P are still $1122.

News announcements for the week…