Tuesday, December 29, 2009

The Hanging Man Reversal

Monday’s SPY chart produced a candlestick pattern called the hanging man. This is a bearish pattern. To some, Monday’s candle may look like a hammer (a bullish signal), it is the positioning of the candle (at the top of the rally) that makes it a bearish pattern.

The hanging man alone does not initiate a sell or short signal. Tuesday’s price action, closing below the body of Monday does however confirm this bear signal (see the write-up on candlesticks).

While the past two weeks have produced light volume, we have a potential pullback to the prior resistance (now new support). If we are to make a new high this pattern would have failed, therefore our stop would be placed just above the highs for short positions.

Sunday, December 27, 2009

Wk52: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers

Last week of 2009!

Expect a light volume week as traders are typically on holiday during the period between Christmas and New Years. Low volume equals sharper, more vicious swings on the moves that do take place as there is less liquidity in the markets. Consumer confidence could shake things up a little on Tuesday; otherwise have a good week and focus on improving yourself for 2010.

Happy New Year!

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Screen Setup & Excel Spreadsheets

Below is a quick video that outlines my screen setups along with some of the excel spreadsheets I use for intraday trading.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

End of Year Homework

As the end of the year rolls around, volume tends to diminish as traders go on holiday. Now is a great time to look back across the year and reflect on things you have accomplished, set goals for 2010, and improve your trading as a whole.

Below are some things you can do as the New Year rolls around to improve your trading

Review your current year goals and evaluate your over/under.
Create new goals: Push your limits, get you out of your comfort zone.
Flip through your notebooks and highlight key points.
Review the years p/l and commission reports.
Make updates and changes to your current trading plan and system.
Analyze your performance.
  (see calculations page in Creating a Trading Plan presentation)
Revamp your notebooks, excel spreadsheets, and word documents.

Any and all of these tasks can be done anytime thought the year, but it is most important to complete them around this time as often times traders forget that reflection is a crucial part of a traders developing success.

Happy Holidays & Happy Trading!

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Wk51: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers

Shortened week this week. The markets are closed Friday with a 1:00 PM EST close on Thursday. We are watching for a breakout higher, or a break below the tail of Friday’s hammer. Those two points should produce some sort of follow thru. Otherwise it looks like we will be waiting till January to see any directional moves. Stay tuned for some year end homework ideas.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Market Higher?

While we have been bouncing between roughly S&P 1085 and 1115, many would be looking to short this last move, however with such a powerhouse week of news this sideways movement seems quite bullish. The list of stocks making new 52-wk highs each day continues to be extensive. If we break $1116.25 on the S&P I would be anticipating a spike (at least intraday) in the markets.

This has been a very difficult intraday trading environment and the holidays it even more difficult to judge price action due to the lacking volume. We are however, looking towards a bullish 2009 close. If we break $1085 to the downside and continue falling with large body candles on the daily's we will shift our bias.

MoneyShow.com Video Interviews

Below are a series of short interviews talking with Trader Tim...

1. The Importance of Setting Clear Goals
2. The Intra-day Market Sessions
3. Balancing Personal Time with Your Trading
4. Developing Trading Rules

Sunday, December 13, 2009

Nov09 Recap

November began on the up and up with a quick rally forming a higher low on the daily chart. However, the second half of the month has been nothing but chop. Looking at the monthly chart, we broke above the inverted hammer which was formed right at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement. The declining volume on the move up is not promising for the bulls. Over the long term we would be looking for some sort of sizeable pullback perhaps over the first quarter of 2010 before putting in a higher low on the monthly’s and moving higher.

Wk50: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers

Tons of news this week including OPTION EXPIRY FRIDAY! It also happens to be a quadruple witching. We continue to move sideways and really go nowhere. Look for a close above the upper resistance or lower support levels to break this sideways action.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Watchlist Update

To view the original watchlist posted on Nov 29 click here.

"Market Wizards"

How much do you think you could learn if you had a chance to sit down with over 15 of the most successful day, value, and long term investors of all time? Do you think you’d finally get that one piece of advice that takes your trading from OK to extraordinary? Today you have the chance to pick the brain of one man who has sat down with experts and got your top questions answered.

The key ingredient with ‘super-traders’ isn’t as complicated as you think, as most of them share the same traits and behavioral patterns, but it’s how they put them to work in the markets that sets them apart.

Visit this link to watch the seminar that brings the experts to you.

Monday, December 7, 2009

"Think and Grow Rich"

For those interested in furthering your knowledge through reading, I thought I'd post a few of the books that have inspired me and my trading. First and foremost, "Think and Grow Rich" by Napoleon Hill. It can be purchased off Amazon here, and an audiobook version can be purchased here. It is agreed by many to be the most important financial book ever written and has been read countless times by some of the world's most successful people.

Wk49: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers
• Weds: EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
• Thurs: International Trade 8:30 AM ET
• Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
• Thurs: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
• Thurs: Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET
• Fri: Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET
• Fri: Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM ET
• Fri: Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET
• Fri: Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET

Ben Bernanke speaks to the Economic Club of Washington D.C. Monday at noon eastern time.

Not a whole lot early on in the week new wise. However Thursday and Friday are packed with a few heavy hitters. We are looking for a breakout or breakdown outside of the latest few weeks of price action.

The U.S. dollar index made a jump back up to $76. It’s possible it may be forming a temporary bottom which would be bearish for equities.

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Youtube Video Channel

Click here to view additional videos at our youtube TJMacTrading channel.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Candlestick Charting 101

Candlestick charts are a simple and effective way to read the days price action. Originating in Japan, Steve Nison brought the candlestick charting method to the west and is widely used in technical analysis to this day as candlestick charting can be used and applied across any trading vehicle or timeframe.

The candlestick is made up of two parts, the body and the shadow. A body that is filled in means prices opened higher than they closed. A body that is not shaded means prices opened lower than they closed. Below is an example of multiple daily candlestick charts strung together to form price movement.