4th of July Hiatus

We will be taking some time off for the holiday festivities including a trip to the big easy. We will return on July 12th. In the mean time we're expecting fireworks in the market as 995 remains our target on the S&P.

Daily Reflection: 06.30

Heavy volume on these last two down days. The market has shown it’s hand and we are on our way to the S&P 995 target.

Daily Reflection: 06.29

Pump the breaks, looks like the market gave us the fake out. From a technical perspective signs were pointing to a bounce, however today’s price action put things back in check. Suddenly that 995 S&P Target doesn’t seem so far away. A few weeks back we talked about getting short at 1127; our target is the $995. We also talked about the importance of hedging. When the market is up, you must think about downside risk, and when the market is down, you must think about upside risk.

Daily Reflection: 06.28

For what appears to be a choppy chart at the end of the day, intraday trading has been quite technical. Took profits on GLD this morning however, we still thing it will be moving higher. Once again we will pick up calls near the lows of the trend line. The Put/Call ratio is showing a move to the upside is near. The move down has begun to slow and round out. We are expecting to close the week positive across the top line figures.

Wk25: Market Recap

We saw a stream of selling this past week; however volume did not jump up by that much. The chart is semi-broken and choppy looking. We will continue to go with what is working, buying pullbacks in strong up trending names like SNDK, NFLX, and GLD, hedging with the QQQQs, SPY, or DIA.

Wk26: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…

The pattern we see forming is a Double Bottom Pullback. Keep in mind that the opposition to any pattern is a violent move ie: if a bullish pattern fails, a violent move to the downside tends to prevail because all the people that were getting long are forced to exit rapidly via market orders. Later this week volume will start to lighten up and next week we will not be trading as volume will be extremely thin.

Wk26: Watchlist

Continue to buy pullbacks in GLD and like NFLX and SNDK as longs if they break their highs from Friday.

Daily Reflection: 06.24

Continued weakness... If you have not hedged your longs, do it. This could get real ugly real fast. We are anticipating a break of 2010 lows.

Daily Reflection: 06.23

Teetering on the edge of a violent move. A break above today's high or low should signal which way that move will take place.

Daily Reflection: 06.22

Heavy selling and a Trin close above 2.0 on both the NYSE and NASDAQ. If we cannot close higher tomorrow we are in for new lows on the year, but as always there are two sides to every trade…

Bulls see: Pullback before making new highs (look at Feb 25, same setup).

Bears see: Head and Shoulders, looking to make new lows on the year.

Tomorrow is the monthly Fed meeting announcement. We are expecting them to leave rates unchanged until the November elections.

Daily Reflection: 06.21

Looking to add to longs on a move above the high of the low day in this pullback. We still have unfilled gaps on the ES to the downside at 1085.50 and 1054.75 and to the upside at 1155.00 and 1198.75.

Wk25: Watchlist

Watch for a break above the high of low bar on a pullback into a long, and a break of the low of high bar for a bounce into a short.

The below names should provide decent setups this week.

Bullish: AAPL GNW, GLD, HSY, RIG, SLB, UAUA

Bearish: BX, GS, QCOM, SYMC

Wk24: Market Recap

The market, while bullish this week, is in the midst of a possible head and shoulders pattern on the weekly timeframe. We will be watching for a break below the low of the prior week’s bar on the move up to get short.

Wk25: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…

The Fed will release their FOMC Minutes Wednesday so expect a volitale intraday session in the morning of 6/23. Friday’s GDP could send the market sailing up or down so we are positioning delta neutral early in the week.

We are trading at all the way halfway back from highs to lows. $1148 on the S&P is the line in the sand, bullish above cautiously bearish below.

Daily Reflection: 06.17

The VIX (Volatility Index) has pulled back which brings up the idea that there could be some sustainability to this rally. We are expecting a bullish OPEX Friday and a selloff to the 20MA next week. This will provide a great opportunity to put on new positions, both long and short.

Took profits on some GLD, looking to grab more if it dips to $120.

Daily Reflection: 06.16

If you're still buying June options, well, shame on you. Options Expiry is Friday and it is also a Quadruple Witching. Look for continued strength to end the week and a selloff next week.

Daily Reflection: 06.15

Today we saw a close above the 20 Period Moving Average across the top line figures. This is something we have not seen since early May. We are bullish for the time being, however do see shorts setting up in the near future. Looking deeper into the leading industry groups we see things like Paper and Tires, rather than Banks and Biotech’s, thus are labeling this as a dead cat bounce until we break $1148 on the S&P.

Since GLD broke to the upside we dumped the put portion of the position, dumped our FXE puts at the open and added an ERTS short at the close. We continue to hold WLP and SNDK as well as a handful of the other names talked about in the weekly watchlist.

Daily Reflection: 06.14

The S&P failed to close above its 20EMA which is the trend changing level we have been talking about. We touched the $1101.75 gap fill from 6/3 to the tick and it ended up being the high for the day. A break above the high of today and we are bullish, break below and we are bearish. A big move is on the way.

Wk23: Market Recap

The weekly chart is extremely choppy. Doji’s and opposing tail hammers make for a difficult trading environment across all timeframes.

Wk24: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…

A close above the 20-EMA would be extremely pivotal. We remain delta neutral until this happens and still have our downside target on the S&P of $1005. Only if we break above $122 will we see this target not being reached.

Wk24: Watchlist

Calls:

WLP strike: 50c

SNDK 41c

SLW 18c


Puts:

FXE strike: 123p

DNDN 42p

GLD strangle or straddle options

116c/124p or 120c/120p

Watchlist Recap: Our stocks over the last few weeks have done quite well, all selling for a profit…
Longs: AKAM, CIT, DTV, NEM, SNDK
Shorts: JCP, GRMN

Daily Reflection: 06.10

We’re not out of the woods just yet. It’s not that we’re permabears here at TJMacTrading, simply remaining objective. We traded average volume on today’s advance, with the VIX down just slightly. The put/call ratio remains over 1.0, and has for some time, never breaking the .90 mark as of late. We have two scenarios from this level that will pan out next week.

Scenario 1: Shot covering rally to retest S&P $1105.

Scenario 2: We rollover from these levels and make new yearly lows at $1005.

100 points apart, only the markets will tell us, whichever scenario occurs, we will be participants.

Creating Your Trading Business

Daily Reflection: 06.09

New lows on the year here we come. S&P 1005 is our target since the bulls have failed to hold this market up. With futures rollover tomorrow intraday trading may continue to be choppy. Nonetheless we did see a great long entry last night right up to our 1074 short on the /ES. We haven’t added any new swing trade positions at this time.

Daily Reflection: 06.08

A short hiatus, but we're back. Looking at a chart of the SPY, we produced a nice little double bottom with stronger volume. To keep it short and sweet, we are looking for a bounce up to 1075 on the S&P500 and then a decline down to our original target $1005.

LVS and UAUA are setting up as nice longs this week. Next week is options expiry so we are looking to July for options. LVS 21 call, and UAUA 19 call.

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Ask any successful trader and they will tell you that the best book out there relating to trading is Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre. This is the story of famed trader Jesse Livermore, discuised in the book as Edwin Lefevre. This incredible story is a very easy read and should be read over and over again.

Daily Reflection: 06.04

S&P Target: $1005. Stay tuned for a full market wrap Sunday.

FLOORED

For those who missed the movie FLOORED, here is a private link.

Daily Reflectino: 06.02

It looks as though the markets are thinking higher. Don't be fooled, even if we do get a short rally we are not clear to retest April highs until we break $1150. Lots of news tomorrow should spark things up a bit and make for some great intraday trading.

Daily Reflection: 06.01

Not a pretty NASDAQ chart for bulls. With daily swing targets below us, an inverted hammer on the QQQQ’s and continuing fears of the Oil Spill, Greece and Spain, and not to mention our own US debt we could see a massive decline this week breaking lows. A break outside of this inverted hammer on the QQQQ’s should give us some short term direction.

New shorts setting up for tomorrow: AMED, M, SLW, UNP