Wk47: Market Recap

The shortened holiday week was not short of surprises. With the news about Dubai World’s asset woes, downward revision to 3rd quarter GDP, rise in new home sales, and a slew of other economic data, left the markets slightly lower on the week.

We have been chopping between the 1114 and 1085 level on the S&P500 and a break outside of these levels will be key in the week ahead. The chop has produced two inverted hammers on the weekly chart of the S&P.

The dollar spiked lower on Wednesday, but immediately snapped back to the $75 area. We will continue to monitor the price action in the coming weeks. As the markets have been acting inversely to the dollar a breakdown in the dollar should lead to higher stock prices.

Wk48: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…

• Mon: Chicago PMI 9:45 AM ET
• Tues: Motor Vehicle Sales

• Tues: ISM Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM ET

• Tues: Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET

• Weds: ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET

• Weds: EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

• Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET

• Thurs: Productivity and Costs 8:30 AM ET

• Thurs: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM ET

• Thurs: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET

• Fri: Employment Situation 8:30 AM

Both Ben Bernanke and Barack Obama speak on Thursday.

The S&P, Dow and NASDAQ remain in uptrend’s with the Russell trending sideways. We want to see a break outside the last few weeks of consolidation before loading up one direction or another. Keep in mind however that December tends to bring upside to the market.

Wk48: Stocks to Watch

With the Russell acting relatively weak to the rest of the indices it only makes sense to look towards small caps for stocks to short. While the Dow has been the strongest of the top line figures, it is only made up of 30 stocks which are not necessarily the most trade friendly. Over the next few weeks we will continue to look at the "typical" holiday names like AMZN, AAPL, BBY, GOOG, JWM, and UPS.

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Wk45: Market Recap

Wk46: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…
• Mon: Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET
• Tues: Producer Price Index 8:30 AM ET
• Tues: Treasury International Capital 9:00 AM ET
• Tues: Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET
• Tues: Housing Market Index 1:00 PM ET
• Weds: Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM
• Weds: Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET
• Weds: EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
• Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
• Thurs: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET

OPTIONS EXPIRY NOV 20!

There’s a lot of economic data on the horizon this week. Ben Bernanke Speaks Monday at 12:00 PM ET to the Economic Club of New York.

S&P500
Daily Trend: Bull Flag
Weekly Trend: Ascending Triangle
Resistance: $1105.37 (prior high not strong resistance)
Support: $1065 - $1075

Dow
Daily Trend: Bull Flag
Weekly Trend: Ascending Triangle
Resistance: $10,341.97 (prior high not strong resistance)
Support: $10,100 - 10,200

NASDAQ
Daily Trend: Bull Flag
Weekly Trend: Sideways to Up
Resistance: $2190.64 (prior high not strong resistance)
Support: $2130 - $2150

Russell 2000
Daily Trend: Start of an uptrend (double top a few weeks ago)
Weekly Trend: Sideways
Resistance: $596.93 (prior high not strong resistance)
Support: $555 - $575

Wk46: Stocks to Watch

Wk45: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…

· Weds: Veteran’s Day. Stock and Futures Markets open

· Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET

· Thurs: EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET

· Thurs: Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET

· Fri: International Trade 8:30 AM ET

· Fri: Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET

· Fri: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET

A lighter economic news week ahead. Keep an eye out for a head and shoulders pattern forming across the S&P and Dow. The right shoulder could be filling out around the S&P500 1065 resistance level. The NASDAQ and Russell have already broken below the prior swing lows.

S&P E-mini Pit Noise

Oct09 Recap

October produced the first monthly bearish candlestick we have seen in four months. The Dow closed flat on the month while the Russell took it on the chin as the worst performer of the top line figures and the only top line figure to not make a new monthly high.

The NASDAQ was the second worst performer of the top line figures with mixed quarterly earnings from its four horsemen AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, and RIMM. AMZN remains the strongest of the four, as AAPL and GOOG already filled their earnings gap ups and RIMM has been on a downward spiral since its earnings announcement.

Wk43: Market Recap

Hello bears. Well, let’s not speak too soon. We remain in an uptrend as long as we continue to make higher highs and higher lows; therefore a break of $1020 on the S&P500 would be the technical pivot to break our uptrend. While we remain reactive rather than try and predict market moves, last week’s actions certainly had a bearish flair to it.

As the old saying goes, “When the VIX is low look out below.” The VIX rallied off its low of $20.10 to put us back into the 30s, breaking the prior high along the way. Higher volatility leads to higher fluctuation in price while lower volatility leads to less fluctuation in price.

Wk44: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…
• Mon: ISM Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM ET
• Mon: Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET
• Tues: Motor Vehicle Sales
• Weds: ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET
• Weds: EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
• Weds: FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:15 PM ET
• Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
• Thurs: Productivity and Costs 8:30 AM ET
• Thurs: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
• Fri: Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET

There is a good amount of support here on the S&P500. Watch how the market acts as we come into the 1030, 1020, 1010 and 1000 levels. If we are to bounce, look for a breakout to new highs and a target of S&P $1120.

Wk44: Stocks to Watch