Jan10 Recap

The top line figures of January posted a bearish start to the year. While we remain just below the halfway back/50% retracement, we see that in the prior decline we chopped around this level for a while before breaking into another bull run. Be prepared for increased volatility in the weeks and months to come.

Dec09 Recap

December’s monthly candle produced a spinning top (trend reversal bar). This, also occurring at the halfway back retracement from the all time highs to recession lows gives the bears some merit.

The NASDAQ on the other hand closed above its 61.8% retracement and has been the leading top line figure for some time now. Volume was minuscule, but that is expected for the month of December. The VIX was tame staying in the low 20’s. Look for volume and market action to pick up in Jan.

Nov09 Recap

November began on the up and up with a quick rally forming a higher low on the daily chart. However, the second half of the month has been nothing but chop. Looking at the monthly chart, we broke above the inverted hammer which was formed right at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement. The declining volume on the move up is not promising for the bulls. Over the long term we would be looking for some sort of sizeable pullback perhaps over the first quarter of 2010 before putting in a higher low on the monthly’s and moving higher.

Oct09 Recap

October produced the first monthly bearish candlestick we have seen in four months. The Dow closed flat on the month while the Russell took it on the chin as the worst performer of the top line figures and the only top line figure to not make a new monthly high.

The NASDAQ was the second worst performer of the top line figures with mixed quarterly earnings from its four horsemen AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, and RIMM. AMZN remains the strongest of the four, as AAPL and GOOG already filled their earnings gap ups and RIMM has been on a downward spiral since its earnings announcement.

Aug09 Recap

This month it was the S&P500 and Dow that outperformed the NASDAQ and Russell. Could this be tribute to the S&P and Dow playing catch-up, or are the NASDAQ and Russell indicating that a rollover to the downside may be in store? This is the 5th consecutive week of new highs of the top line figures on the monthly chart.

July09: Recap

The month of July was quite bullish, however the decline in volume continues as the summer begins to wind down in the coming month. While some of the volume decrease can be attributed to the summer months, it will be crucial to watch what happens when big money steps in again in September. The S&P, Dow, and Russell are all hovering around their 38.2 Fibonacci retracements, with the NASDAQ approaching its 50% retracement level. Tech being a leading indicator, we anticipate the rest of the top line figures to follow suit.

June09: Recap

The markets put in a Doji for the month of June, not surprising after one of the largest bear market rallies ever. Small Cap and Tech acted relatively strong this past month.

We will keep an eye on the SPY, DIA, QQQQ, and IWM volume as we anticipate a drift sideways or lower from here. If we do breakout, we will look to a spike in volume to confirm this rally. Remember your timeframe; a candle is not formed until the bar is complete.

May09: Recap

The month of May continued its bull rally, but on a smaller body candle and decreasing volume. The S&P500 saw the largest gain with the Russell posting the weakest gain. Watch for the move to run out of steam noted by a bearish or sideways candle.

April09: Recap

The month of April was the real first sign of bullishness in quite some time. This was the first month of the S&P making a new monthly high this year and only the 6th positive month since the market’s high in October of 2007. Any up moves from here on out will have quite a bit of support and resistance from the yearly, weekly and daily perspectives so don’t forget to pull out when you are drawing your trendlines in the broader markets.

March09 Recap

After a break of the 2002 swing lows, the month of March put in a fairly bullish candle, closing well into the prior monthly candle’s range. This recent breakdown below the 2002 swing low puts us at a 12 year low, which we will probably not fully recover from for quite some time. The long term buy and hold days are over for now, it’s a trader’s market, so be glad you are one!

Feb09 Recap

The S/P and Dow both broke down and closed below the prior lows set back in 2002, while the NASDAQ and Russell are considerably well off those levels. Nonetheless, the month of February was quite bearish. Earnings, Economic Data, and President Obama’s Stimulus Plan were all contributing factors in the month’s volatility.
Even though we are primarily swing traders, it is important to back out and review the indices and individual positions on a larger timeframe as prior levels of support and resistance can come into play matter how far out they may be.

Jan09 Recap

2009 has been one of the worst starts in stock market history. We are still chopping around down near the old 2002/2003 lows and should continue the process during the months to come. We see a bearish engulfment candle on the SPY monthly with no sign of bulls stepping in.