The Hanging Man Reversal

Monday’s SPY chart produced a candlestick pattern called the hanging man. This is a bearish pattern. To some, Monday’s candle may look like a hammer (a bullish signal), it is the positioning of the candle (at the top of the rally) that makes it a bearish pattern.

The hanging man alone does not initiate a sell or short signal. Tuesday’s price action, closing below the body of Monday does however confirm this bear signal (see the write-up on candlesticks).

While the past two weeks have produced light volume, we have a potential pullback to the prior resistance (now new support). If we are to make a new high this pattern would have failed, therefore our stop would be placed just above the highs for short positions.

Wk52: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…

Last week of 2009!

Expect a light volume week as traders are typically on holiday during the period between Christmas and New Years. Low volume equals sharper, more vicious swings on the moves that do take place as there is less liquidity in the markets. Consumer confidence could shake things up a little on Tuesday; otherwise have a good week and focus on improving yourself for 2010.

Happy New Year!

Screen Setup & Excel Spreadsheets

Below is a quick video that outlines my screen setups along with some of the excel spreadsheets I use for intraday trading.

End of Year Homework

As the end of the year rolls around, volume tends to diminish as traders go on holiday. Now is a great time to look back across the year and reflect on things you have accomplished, set goals for 2010, and improve your trading as a whole.

Below are some things you can do as the New Year rolls around to improve your trading…

• Review your current year goals and evaluate your over/under.

• Create new goals: Push your limits, get you out of your comfort zone.

• Flip through your notebooks and highlight key points.

• Review the years p/l and commission reports.

• Make updates and changes to your current trading plan and system.

• Analyze your performance.

  (see calculations page in Creating a Trading Plan presentation)

• Revamp your notebooks, excel spreadsheets, and word documents.

Any and all of these tasks can be done anytime thought the year, but it is most important to complete them around this time as often times traders forget that reflection is a crucial part of a traders developing success.

Happy Holidays & Happy Trading!

Wk51: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…

Shortened week this week. The markets are closed Friday with a 1:00 PM EST close on Thursday. We are watching for a breakout higher, or a break below the tail of Friday’s hammer. Those two points should produce some sort of follow thru. Otherwise it looks like we will be waiting till January to see any directional moves. Stay tuned for some year end homework ideas.

Market Higher?

While we have been bouncing between roughly S&P 1085 and 1115, many would be looking to short this last move, however with such a powerhouse week of news this sideways movement seems quite bullish. The list of stocks making new 52-wk highs each day continues to be extensive. If we break $1116.25 on the S&P I would be anticipating a spike (at least intraday) in the markets.

This has been a very difficult intraday trading environment and the holidays it even more difficult to judge price action due to the lacking volume. We are however, looking towards a bullish 2009 close. If we break $1085 to the downside and continue falling with large body candles on the daily's we will shift our bias.

MoneyShow.com Video Interviews

Below are a series of short interviews talking with Trader Tim...

1. The Importance of Setting Clear Goals
2. The Intra-day Market Sessions
3. Balancing Personal Time with Your Trading
4. Developing Trading Rules

Nov09 Recap

November began on the up and up with a quick rally forming a higher low on the daily chart. However, the second half of the month has been nothing but chop. Looking at the monthly chart, we broke above the inverted hammer which was formed right at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement. The declining volume on the move up is not promising for the bulls. Over the long term we would be looking for some sort of sizeable pullback perhaps over the first quarter of 2010 before putting in a higher low on the monthly’s and moving higher.

Wk50: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…

Tons of news this week including OPTION EXPIRY FRIDAY! It also happens to be a quadruple witching. We continue to move sideways and really go nowhere. Look for a close above the upper resistance or lower support levels to break this sideways action.

Watchlist Update

To view the original watchlist posted on Nov 29 click here.

"Market Wizards"

How much do you think you could learn if you had a chance to sit down with over 15 of the most successful day, value, and long term investors of all time? Do you think you’d finally get that one piece of advice that takes your trading from OK to extraordinary? Today you have the chance to pick the brain of one man who has sat down with experts and got your top questions answered.

The key ingredient with ‘super-traders’ isn’t as complicated as you think, as most of them share the same traits and behavioral patterns, but it’s how they put them to work in the markets that sets them apart.

Visit this link to watch the seminar that brings the experts to you.

"Think and Grow Rich"

For those interested in furthering your knowledge through reading, I thought I'd post a few of the books that have inspired me and my trading. First and foremost, "Think and Grow Rich" by Napoleon Hill. It can be purchased off Amazon here, and an audiobook version can be purchased here. It is agreed by many to be the most important financial book ever written and has been read countless times by some of the world's most successful people.

Wk49: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…

• Weds: EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

• Thurs: International Trade 8:30 AM ET

• Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET

• Thurs: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET

• Thurs: Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET

• Fri: Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET

• Fri: Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM ET

• Fri: Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET

• Fri: Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET

Ben Bernanke speaks to the Economic Club of Washington D.C. Monday at noon eastern time.

Not a whole lot early on in the week new wise. However Thursday and Friday are packed with a few heavy hitters. We are looking for a breakout or breakdown outside of the latest few weeks of price action.

The U.S. dollar index made a jump back up to $76. It’s possible it may be forming a temporary bottom which would be bearish for equities.

Youtube Video Channel

Click here to view additional videos at our youtube TJMacTrading channel.

Getting Started in E-minis Trading

Candlestick Charting 101

Candlestick charts are a simple and effective way to read the days price action. Originating in Japan, Steve Nison brought the candlestick charting method to the west and is widely used in technical analysis to this day as candlestick charting can be used and applied across any trading vehicle or timeframe.

The candlestick is made up of two parts, the body and the shadow. A body that is filled in means prices opened higher than they closed. A body that is not shaded means prices opened lower than they closed. Below is an example of multiple daily candlestick charts strung together to form price movement.

Wk47: Market Recap

The shortened holiday week was not short of surprises. With the news about Dubai World’s asset woes, downward revision to 3rd quarter GDP, rise in new home sales, and a slew of other economic data, left the markets slightly lower on the week.

We have been chopping between the 1114 and 1085 level on the S&P500 and a break outside of these levels will be key in the week ahead. The chop has produced two inverted hammers on the weekly chart of the S&P.

The dollar spiked lower on Wednesday, but immediately snapped back to the $75 area. We will continue to monitor the price action in the coming weeks. As the markets have been acting inversely to the dollar a breakdown in the dollar should lead to higher stock prices.

Wk48: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…

• Mon: Chicago PMI 9:45 AM ET
• Tues: Motor Vehicle Sales

• Tues: ISM Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM ET

• Tues: Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET

• Weds: ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET

• Weds: EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

• Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET

• Thurs: Productivity and Costs 8:30 AM ET

• Thurs: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM ET

• Thurs: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET

• Fri: Employment Situation 8:30 AM

Both Ben Bernanke and Barack Obama speak on Thursday.

The S&P, Dow and NASDAQ remain in uptrend’s with the Russell trending sideways. We want to see a break outside the last few weeks of consolidation before loading up one direction or another. Keep in mind however that December tends to bring upside to the market.

Wk48: Stocks to Watch

With the Russell acting relatively weak to the rest of the indices it only makes sense to look towards small caps for stocks to short. While the Dow has been the strongest of the top line figures, it is only made up of 30 stocks which are not necessarily the most trade friendly. Over the next few weeks we will continue to look at the "typical" holiday names like AMZN, AAPL, BBY, GOOG, JWM, and UPS.

Market Internals Setup

For those interested in a detailed description of how to setup market internals for the thinkorswim platform click here. The Shadowtrader has put together a great video, no need for me to recreate it.

Screen Setup

Creating a Trading Plan

Click here to view my Traders Expo presentation on "Creating a Trading Plan." Feel free to post your questions, or contact me via email if you have specific questions relating to you and your trading plan.

Infinity Futures

Traders Expo: Las Vegas!

Wk45: Market Recap

Wk46: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…
• Mon: Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET
• Tues: Producer Price Index 8:30 AM ET
• Tues: Treasury International Capital 9:00 AM ET
• Tues: Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET
• Tues: Housing Market Index 1:00 PM ET
• Weds: Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM
• Weds: Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET
• Weds: EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
• Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
• Thurs: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET

OPTIONS EXPIRY NOV 20!

There’s a lot of economic data on the horizon this week. Ben Bernanke Speaks Monday at 12:00 PM ET to the Economic Club of New York.

S&P500
Daily Trend: Bull Flag
Weekly Trend: Ascending Triangle
Resistance: $1105.37 (prior high not strong resistance)
Support: $1065 - $1075

Dow
Daily Trend: Bull Flag
Weekly Trend: Ascending Triangle
Resistance: $10,341.97 (prior high not strong resistance)
Support: $10,100 - 10,200

NASDAQ
Daily Trend: Bull Flag
Weekly Trend: Sideways to Up
Resistance: $2190.64 (prior high not strong resistance)
Support: $2130 - $2150

Russell 2000
Daily Trend: Start of an uptrend (double top a few weeks ago)
Weekly Trend: Sideways
Resistance: $596.93 (prior high not strong resistance)
Support: $555 - $575

Wk46: Stocks to Watch

Wk45: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…

· Weds: Veteran’s Day. Stock and Futures Markets open

· Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET

· Thurs: EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET

· Thurs: Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET

· Fri: International Trade 8:30 AM ET

· Fri: Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET

· Fri: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET

A lighter economic news week ahead. Keep an eye out for a head and shoulders pattern forming across the S&P and Dow. The right shoulder could be filling out around the S&P500 1065 resistance level. The NASDAQ and Russell have already broken below the prior swing lows.

S&P E-mini Pit Noise

Oct09 Recap

October produced the first monthly bearish candlestick we have seen in four months. The Dow closed flat on the month while the Russell took it on the chin as the worst performer of the top line figures and the only top line figure to not make a new monthly high.

The NASDAQ was the second worst performer of the top line figures with mixed quarterly earnings from its four horsemen AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, and RIMM. AMZN remains the strongest of the four, as AAPL and GOOG already filled their earnings gap ups and RIMM has been on a downward spiral since its earnings announcement.

Wk43: Market Recap

Hello bears. Well, let’s not speak too soon. We remain in an uptrend as long as we continue to make higher highs and higher lows; therefore a break of $1020 on the S&P500 would be the technical pivot to break our uptrend. While we remain reactive rather than try and predict market moves, last week’s actions certainly had a bearish flair to it.

As the old saying goes, “When the VIX is low look out below.” The VIX rallied off its low of $20.10 to put us back into the 30s, breaking the prior high along the way. Higher volatility leads to higher fluctuation in price while lower volatility leads to less fluctuation in price.

Wk44: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…
• Mon: ISM Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM ET
• Mon: Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET
• Tues: Motor Vehicle Sales
• Weds: ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET
• Weds: EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
• Weds: FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:15 PM ET
• Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
• Thurs: Productivity and Costs 8:30 AM ET
• Thurs: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
• Fri: Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET

There is a good amount of support here on the S&P500. Watch how the market acts as we come into the 1030, 1020, 1010 and 1000 levels. If we are to bounce, look for a breakout to new highs and a target of S&P $1120.

Wk44: Stocks to Watch

Traders Expo: Las Vegas!

Watchlist: Oct, 28 2009

Creating a Business Plan

Treating trading as a business with the objectives, goals, and guidelines clearly laid out will not only help keep things organized, but allow for less emotional involvement during tough market conditions. Defined entry and exits need in place for when to take losses and profits. Protecting profits while limiting losses is the name of the game, remember the bottom line, we’re in this to make money.

Being diligent and thorough with your trading, and keeping detailed records will be a tremendous help and allow you to go back and really pick apart things the things that are working from the things that are not.

Finally decisive action is an important quality to have when developing as a trader. A good trader has trained his eye to spot potential forming trends. Often times when a clear trend is established it is already too late to enter in the trade. The business is trading and treating it as such will be the first step to becoming successful.

Wk42: Market Recap

We continue to chop sideways as earnings and economic news pours out. We have strong support at the $1075 level and resistance at $1100 on the S&P 500. Some positive economic news was answered by a decline on the market. With clearly defined support and resistant levels on the top line figures we have a good gauge of when to exit trades. We still remain in an uptrend and once that uptrend is broken we will think of taking a more bearish stance. We currently remain cautiously bullish.
It would make sense that we would continue up to at least the $1121 level on the S&P500 (50% Fibonacci retirement) as we continue to churn around the down trendline on the weekly chart.

Wk43: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…
· Tues: S&P Case-Shiller HPI 9:00 AM ET
· Tues: Consumer Confidence 10:00 AM ET
· Weds: Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET
· Weds: New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET
· Weds: EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
· Thurs: GDP 8:30 AM ET
· Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
· Thurs: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
· Fri: Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM ET
· Fri: Chicago PMI 9:45 AM ET
· Fri: Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET

Jam packed weak of news announcements and lots and lots of earnings! Click here to view the earnings calendar.

To checkout the new weekly video forecast CLICK HERE!

Wk43: Stocks to Watch

Proceed with caution when putting on new trades this week. Lots of earnings and news will issue big whipsaws in the market. Watch for stocks that continue their trends throughout the news announcements this week as these will be the stocks that will act as relative strength and weakness once the earnings season is over.

Traders Expo: Las Vegas!

Wk42: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…
· Mon: Housing Market Index 1:00 PM ET
· Tues: Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET
· Tues: Producer Price Index 8:30 AM ET
· Weds: EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
· Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
· Thurs: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
· Fri: Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET

We are in the midst of earnings season so don’t forget to double check your stocks for individual news!

We are also in the middle of a bull flag pattern on the top-line figures. Take a look at the chart below to see our setup. A break of 1097 in the S&P500 is our breakout level and if we break down there is support at 1065 level.

Traders Expo: Las Vegas!

Visit Las Vegas this November 18-21, 2009 where Tim Racette will be a guest speaker, teaching traders how to create a solid trading strategy. Click here for more info.

Wk41: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…
· Weds: Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET
· Weds: FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET
· Thurs: Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM ET
· Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
· Thurs: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
· Thurs: EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET
· Fri: Treasury International Capital 9:00 AM ET
· Fri: Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET
· Fri: Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET

Heavy Earnings! View latest earnings announcements here.

Looking for continued bullishness this week as it is Option Expiry, we can begin to see the formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern forming as well. The top line figures are knocking their heads on resistance however so pay attention to those longer time frames like weekly and monthly charts.

Wk40: Market Forecast

Market Forecast
In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…
· Weds: EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
· Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
· Thurs: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
· Fri: International Trade 8:30 AM ET

After a long rally, a pullback is finally upon us. The $1000 level is a strong psychological support level and we have identified the current daily trend as down due to the lower high on 9/29. We remain in an uptrend on the weekly however, so expect more volume to enter the market.

Opinions, hold them loosely.

The ability to change direction when trading is crucial to a trader's success. First, and most importantly you must identify the trend. Next, executing your trade according to your plan, and third, exit immediately when the market environment that you entered the trade on changes. Staying objective is much harder to do when you are in a trade, therefore having your plan written down in front of you will be greatly beneficial.

Anticipation Doesn't Pay

Does it pay to Jump the gun? In most cases, No. Though there are times it is profitable, it is not highly probable. Catching the few cents or points ahead of the breakout or breakdown is not worth the risk that it entails. When entering a trade around a specific candlestick or pattern formation, it is in your best interest to wait for the breakout above or below the pattern such as a hammer before entering the trade.

In the case of Wednesday's candle formation, if you did go long in the morning, don't worry, that's perfectly okay, just make sure to have your risk defined, that is, "a stop below the low of the tail." Before taking any trade you MUST, MUST, MUST define your entry price, stop price, and profit target. This alone will greatly increase your probability of success.

Another leg higher?

Today’s decline and rally happened on relatively big volume, signaling a continued move to the upside. The candlestick formation that was formed, called a hammer indicates that first the bears were able to push prices lower, but later in the day the bulls overpowered and brought prices back up near the open, this is a bullish sign.

We’ve also had plenty of stocks making new 52-wk highs over the past week and only a few making 52-wk lows. We know we are wrong if prices break below the tail of today's hammer hence a stop should be placed just below there on any long trades tomorrow.

Earnings, Earnings, Earnings

Keep an eye out for earnings announcements in the stocks you are trading for the next few weeks. Click here for more info on earnings announcements.

Wk38: Market Recap

We remain bullish on the weekly chart of the top line figures. The head and shoulders pattern formed between November of 08 and July of 09 had roughly a 250 point range on the S&P therefore the target is $1200 on the S&P to be completed within approximately 8 months after July 09. We have seen lower volume on this rally a sign that buyers are still hesitant.

Wk39: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…
· Tues: S&P Case-Shiller HPI 9:30 AM ET
· Tues: Consumer Confidence 10:00 AM ET
· Weds: ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET
· Weds: GDP 8:30 AM ET
· Weds: EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
· Thurs: Performance Income and Outlays 8:30 AM ET
· Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
· Thurs: ISM Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM ET
· Thurs: Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET
· Thurs: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
· Fri: Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET

Another week packed with economic data including GDP Wednesday, ISM Manufacturing Thursday and Employment Situation Friday.

Even though we’ve pulled back on the daily chart, we cannot be sure if it is the end of the bull run. We remain in a downtrend on the monthly chart; however watch for a moving down into the S&P support level of 1020-1040.

Wk39: Stocks to Watch

This week we are going to look for stocks that are in up trends, close or at their 52-week and all time highs, as well as trading above their 20 period exponential moving average. We use an exponential versus simple moving average because it places more weight on the most current trading day. We also want to make sure the 20-EMA is in an uptrend and above the 50 period moving average. Wait for a close above the high of the low day for entry on longs.

A Healthy Pullback?

On a line chart, the pullback we've seen appears to be quite healthy. We remain in the trend of higher highs and higher lows, with the Ascending Triangle pattern prevailing. Notice how every time we touch the trend line we move higher off of it.

When a market moves sideways or pulls back slightly look to volume to determine if it is a temporary breather, or a change of trend. If volume decreases after a move higher is it expected that prices will continue in the direction of the trend. If volume remains high during a period of sideways action it is an indication that sellers are becoming stronger and could signal a turn in trend.

Wk38: Market Forecast

A short bit this week, FOMC Meeting Announcement Weds at 2:15PM EST all news announcements can be found here. Since Friday put in an inside day, watch for a break of S&P500 1075 or 1060 to confirm additional bullishness or a pullback.

We may be in an uptrend on a short-term daily chart, but we remain in the context of a downtrend on the weekly chart of the top line figures. We are at an inflection point in the market, watch how it reacts to news and speeches. Trade with caution this week.

Watch for further updates throughout the week.

Traders Expo: Las Vegas!

Visit Las Vegas this November 18-21, 2009 where Tim Racette will be a guest speaker, teaching traders how to create a solid trading strategy. Click here for more info.

Wk36: Market Recap

The market refuses to go lower in week 36. With repeated attempts by the bears to push the market lower off the open, the lower prices were quickly rejected by the market. Friday was quite lackluster, perhaps due to the fact that it was 9-11. Friday’s breadth, highlighted in orange represents a market at parity.
Gauging off the weekly chart, we should see a continued rally in the markets as we are breaking above the hammer formed in week 35. However, the S&P500 is approaching the top of its channel, and with slowing action late in the week a pullback could be in store in the coming weeks back to the prior breakout point of $1030 or the psychological $1000 level. Notice the divergence between price and volume on the weekly chart as well.

Wk37: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…
· Tues: Producer Price Index 8:30 AM ET
· Tues: Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET
· Weds: Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM ET
· Weds: Treasury International Capital 9:00 AM ET

· Weds: Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET
· Weds: EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
· Weds: Housing Market Index 1:00 PM ET
· Thurs: Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET
· Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
· Thurs: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
· Fri: Quadruple Witching

Lots of economic news this upcoming week that should move the market including a Quadruple Witching on Friday, meaning stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire.

Looking at a chart of the SPY with a Fibonacci drawn, the 127.1% and 161.8% extensions act as price targets when a stock or index breaks out. The spinning top candle pattern on Friday could be a sign of stocks beginning to roll over here, but any sideways movement would be considered bullish.
The VIX is also something to note. Currently at lows on the year, the lower 20 range that it has been sitting in is half of what it was a mere 6 months ago.

Wk37: Stocks to Watch

As we flip through our scans and watchlists we notice many more stocks breaking to 52-week highs than 52-week lows. As a matter of fact, there are hardly any stocks making 52-week lows across the board. Keep looking out for stocks that are relatively strong and weak to the market as a stock’s value is influenced by the rising and sinking tide of the market.

Long: ASML, AWH, BP, BR, BRCM, CYMI, LPL, NTGR, OSK, SBUX, ULTA (w/ caution)

Short: CPA, CTXS

AMZN is on our short radar, keeping in mind that holiday season is soon approaching, this stock is in a short term down trend over the past few months and not acting as strong as it typically has.

For those who took some longs in the double leveraged ETF’s we talked about last week, look to take profits on all or a portion of the trades, tightening stops on the remained at least to at-or-above break even.

Wk36: Watchlist Update

If we take out $1040 on the S&P500 look for these stocks to breakout... BWLD, CNQR, CREE, MNKD, NETL

If we pull back, here are some weak stocks in down channels or down trends... AAN, AKA, MGVA, PCL

Aug09 Recap

This month it was the S&P500 and Dow that outperformed the NASDAQ and Russell. Could this be tribute to the S&P and Dow playing catch-up, or are the NASDAQ and Russell indicating that a rollover to the downside may be in store? This is the 5th consecutive week of new highs of the top line figures on the monthly chart.

Wk35: Market Recap

I don't like to toot my own horn, but in this case I will pat myself on the back...

http://tjmactrading.blogspot.com/2009/08/top-is-here.html

http://tjmactrading.blogspot.com/2009/09/watch-for-bounce.html

Wk36: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…
· Thurs: International Trade 8:30 AM ET
· Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
· Thurs: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
· Thurs: EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET
· Fri: Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET
· Fri: Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET

This week should set the tempo for the rest of 2009.

Wk36: Stocks to Watch

AAPL, OSK, GOOG, and Double Levereged Index ETFs like the SSO.

Watch for a Bounce!

Watch for a bounce at the S&P 980 Level. Not only is this a strong support level, it is right at the uptrend line of the March and July lows. The rest of the week should continue to drift lower on lighter volume going into the 3-day holiday weekend.

How the market reacts to the Jobless Claims number Thursday and Employment Situation Friday will be quite important. For those continuing to be bearish, don't worry, we are halfway through the formation of a head and shoulder's pattern on the top line figures.