Daily Reflection: 04.30

Great buy, or head for the hills? GDP rose 3.2% in the first quarter leading to signs of a growing economy. The Put/Call Ratio closed above 1.0 at 1.06 indicating a high number of puts on the books, theory being do the opposite. Stay tuned for a full market analysis.

Daily Reflection: 04.29

It seems as though nothing can keep this market down. The VIX fell back into the teens and the indices ripped back up towards prior highs. Whether we can break these highs or fall short will be crucial. There’s lots of economic news tomorrow including GDP before the bell.

Daily Reflection: 04.28

The market rebounds today slightly after yesterday’s decline. We would not be surprised by further downside, however chopping around between these levels and prior highs are more likely for the remainder of the week. Tomorrow we have Jobless Claims and Nat Gas Report, Friday we have GDP before the bell.

Daily Reflection: 04.27

Another huge volume day accompanied by a 5 pt jump in the VIX. The noteworthy relationship here is that the last huge volume day occurred on the last big down day (4/16). We have broken immediate trend line support, but we will wait for the FOMC meeting announcement tomorrow to make any major shift in bias to the downside. ...and oh yeah, Goldman (GS) closed positive on the day.

Daily Reflection: 04.26

This week will produce a sharp move. Expect it. Today we showed larger volume with sideways chop, ending the day with a victory to the bears.

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Wk16: Market Recap

A little triangle at highs broke out on Friday sending the market upwards once again. For those looking to jump on board I would caution and wait for the talking heads on CNBC to use the verbiage, “This market cannot be stopped,” or “Everyone needs to jump on board.” Then go short.

Wk17: Market Forecast

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers…

We have the FOMC Meeting Announcement Wednesday at 2:15 PM EST, expecting the FED to keep rates unchanged for “an extended period of time,” but as in pat announcements the wording will be the focus. We also have GDP on Friday before the bell. We’re still looking for some hesitation at the S&P 1225-1230 due to the fact that the 61.8% line from the weekly timeframe is here. If we blow right though this level then we will continue up to prior highs at 1575, making a full retracement. The NASDAQ and Russell are almost there.

Daily Reflection 04.23

Welcome new highs of the year. It didn't take long. We'll have a full recap this Sunday. As long as we continue to hold our long setups, we will remain in a long bias. Once a long setup is broken we can reevaluate and look to get short. As always though, if you are seeing profits in some of your long positions, now would be a good time to either scale out of a portion, or add some downside hedging such as puts on weak companties etc.

Daily Reflection: 04.22

Happy Earth Day. While we may have temporarily double topped in the /ES, look for new highs to be made very soon. Once we get a new high we can draw our next retracement level and look for an entry.